每一個(gè)投資大師都有其代表性的名言。比如巴菲特的名言是，永遠(yuǎn)不要虧錢。芒格的名言是，用公道的價(jià)格去買偉大的公司。今天我們就給大家分享一批來自最優(yōu)秀對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理的投資名言。這些都是來自《對(duì)沖基金奇才》（hedge fund market wizard）作者，杰克.施瓦格的書。可以說這些話，未必每一句都對(duì)你有幫助，但是里面一定能找到給你帶來啟發(fā)，給你產(chǎn)生共鳴的那句話。其實(shí)很多年前，我就曾經(jīng)翻譯過里面的金句，發(fā)送給客戶。今天，我在每一句話中，除了中英文的翻譯，還增加了自己的注解。將自己的理解放進(jìn)去，更好的幫助大家做一些內(nèi)容提煉。也希望大家喜歡！

1、As Long as no one cares about it, there is no trend.  Would you be short Nasdaq in 1999? You can’t be short because you think fundamentally something is overpriced.  (只要沒人在乎，就沒有趨勢(shì)。你會(huì)在1999年做空納斯達(dá)克嗎？你不能僅僅因?yàn)閮r(jià)格過高了而去做空)。

朱昂注：投資中不應(yīng)該去做簡(jiǎn)單的逆向，而是等待趨勢(shì)和價(jià)值的共振。1999年的納斯達(dá)克泡沫巨大，但也是上漲最快速的。做空和做多不同，你持有成本更高，需要一定的擇時(shí)

2、All markets look liquid during the bubble( massive uptrend), but its the liquidity after the bubble ends that matters. (所有泡沫在頂峰時(shí)期流動(dòng)性都很好，但真正重要的是泡沫崩潰后的流動(dòng)性)。

朱昂注：在每一次泡沫中，流動(dòng)性都是很好的。2015年大熊市中，許多小股票一天交易量幾十億。但是2015年泡沫崩潰后，大家才發(fā)現(xiàn)了流動(dòng)性問題，許多股票沒有交易量了。

3、Markets tend to over discount the uncertainty related to identified risks.  Conversely, markets tend to underdiscount risks that have not yet been expressly identified.  Whenever the market is pointing at something and saying this is a risk to be concerned about, in my experience, most of the time, the risk ends up being not as bad as the market anticipated. (市場(chǎng)總是會(huì)過度反應(yīng)已有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的不確定性。相反的，市場(chǎng)總是對(duì)于還沒有發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)期不夠。當(dāng)市場(chǎng)開始說需要擔(dān)心某個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的時(shí)候，從我的經(jīng)驗(yàn)上感覺，大部分時(shí)候這個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并沒有市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的那么差)

朱昂注：市場(chǎng)總是過度反應(yīng)當(dāng)下和已知，對(duì)于未來和未知反應(yīng)不足。2008年A股底部時(shí)，所有人都覺得市場(chǎng)要關(guān)門，經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條了。其實(shí)那個(gè)時(shí)候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)包含在價(jià)格中，而且被過度反應(yīng)了。

4、The low-quality names tend to outperform early in the cycle, and the high-quality names tend to outperform toward the end of the cycle.（周期開始的時(shí)候往往質(zhì)量低劣的公司跑贏，而周期尾端的時(shí)候往往質(zhì)量好的公司跑贏）

朱昂注：可以理解為，牛市前期買垃圾股，牛市后期買績(jī)優(yōu)股

5、Traders focus almost entirely on where to enter a trade. In reality, the entry size is often more important than the entry price because if the size is too large, a trader will be more likely to exit a good trade on a meaningless adverse price move. The larger the position, the greater the danger that trading decisions will be driven by fear rather than by judgment and experience. （交易員幾乎只關(guān)注何時(shí)進(jìn)入交易。事實(shí)上，交易的規(guī)模往往比價(jià)格重要，因?yàn)槿绻?guī)模過大，交易員很可能在沒有意義的股價(jià)波動(dòng)中退出一個(gè)很好的交易。頭寸越大，交易員受恐懼的影響就越大）

朱昂注：許多人關(guān)注股票的買入價(jià)格，其實(shí)比買入價(jià)格更重要的是，買入的量。買入的量大，可能會(huì)放大你的恐懼和貪婪，但其實(shí)也決定了你的收益率。索羅斯也曾經(jīng)說過，重要的不是這筆交易表面浮盈比例，而是你下了多少籌碼，賺錢的數(shù)量級(jí)。

6、Virtually all traders experience periods when they are out of sync with the markets. When you are in a losing streak, you can’t turn the situation around by trying harder. When trading is going badly, Clark’s advice is to get out of everything and take a holiday. Liquidating positions will allow you to regain objectivity. （幾乎每個(gè)交易員都會(huì)經(jīng)歷和踏不準(zhǔn)市場(chǎng)節(jié)奏的時(shí)候，當(dāng)你連續(xù)輸?shù)臅r(shí)候，不是更加努力就能扭轉(zhuǎn)情況的。當(dāng)一系列錯(cuò)誤交易的時(shí)候，應(yīng)該賣掉一切去度假。賣掉所有的倉位能讓你重新獲得客觀性）。

朱昂注：每個(gè)人在投資中都會(huì)面臨自己風(fēng)格或者方法不適應(yīng)的時(shí)候。比如價(jià)值股風(fēng)格的人，在2013年和2015年上半年就會(huì)很難受。成長(zhǎng)股風(fēng)格在2012年，2015年下半年也會(huì)很痛苦。投資方法也類似，不是年年賺大錢，巴菲特還在1999年網(wǎng)絡(luò)股泡沫高峰時(shí)，跑輸幾乎所有基金經(jīng)理。這時(shí)候，其實(shí)你不需要嘗試扭轉(zhuǎn)乾坤，而是應(yīng)該去放松一些，用客戶的眼光看待目前的現(xiàn)狀。

7、Staring at the screen all day is counterproductive. He believes that watching every tick will lead to both selling good positions prematurely and overtrading. He advises traders to find something else (preferably productive) to occupy part of their time to avoid the pitfalls of watching the market too closely. （整天看著屏幕根本沒有效率。他認(rèn)為看著每個(gè)股票會(huì)導(dǎo)致過早賣出好的股票和過度交易。他建議交易員找點(diǎn)其他事情來填補(bǔ)時(shí)間，而不要看著市場(chǎng)太緊密）

朱昂注：投資中最害人的就是時(shí)時(shí)刻刻盯盤?？幢P是沒問題的，保持和市場(chǎng)的感覺。但時(shí)時(shí)刻刻盯盤，想做每一個(gè)波段，關(guān)注每一個(gè)小數(shù)點(diǎn)的波動(dòng)，其實(shí)毫無意義。而且盯盤是一個(gè)效率很低的事情，不如用來看書和跑步。

8、When markets are trending up strongly, and there is bad news, the bad news counts for nothing. But if there is a break that reminds people what it is like to lose money in equities, then suddenly the buying is not mindless anymore. People start looking at the fundamentals, and in this case I knew the fundamentals were very ugly indeed. （當(dāng)市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)勢(shì)向上的時(shí)候出現(xiàn)壞消息，壞消息什么都不是。但是如果有一段時(shí)間提醒人民虧錢的感覺是什么，突然間不理智的買盤會(huì)消失。人們會(huì)開始看基本面，而在這個(gè)時(shí)候我知道基本面會(huì)很差）。

朱昂注：在牛市中，每一個(gè)壞消息都會(huì)迅速消化，甚至被當(dāng)做低開高走，給大家買入機(jī)會(huì)的利好。但是一旦市場(chǎng)漲不動(dòng)了，沒有賺錢效應(yīng)后，往往意味著市場(chǎng)見頂。因?yàn)檫@個(gè)時(shí)候看基本面，往往是有巨大泡沫的。

9、Buying low-beta stocks is a common mistake investors make. Why would you ever want to own boring stocks? If the market goes down 40 percent for macro reasons, they’ll go down 20 percent. Wouldn’t you just rather own cash? And if the market goes up 50 percent, the boring stocks will go up only 10 percent. You have negatively asymmetric returns. （買彈性低的股票是一個(gè)常有的錯(cuò)誤。為什么你想擁有無聊的股票。如果市場(chǎng)因?yàn)楹暧^因素下跌40%，他們會(huì)下跌20%。那還不如持有現(xiàn)金呢？而如果市場(chǎng)上漲50%，無聊的股票只會(huì)上漲10%。你的相對(duì)收益是負(fù)的）

朱昂注：你不能因?yàn)橐粋€(gè)股票下跌會(huì)比較少而去買。投資不是比誰虧的少，而是去買能漲的多。當(dāng)然這一度我的理解是，還是要做組合管理。組合里面如果都是高彈性的股票，也是非常危險(xiǎn)的。

10、If a stock is extremely oversold—say, the RSI is at a three-year low—it will get me to take a closer look at it.8 Normally, if a stock is that brutalized, it means that whatever is killing it is probably already in the price. RSI doesn’t work as an overbought indicator because stocks can remain overbought for a very long time. But a stock being extremely oversold is usually an acute phenomenon that lasts for only a few weeks. （如果一個(gè)股票嚴(yán)重過賣了，比如RSI是三年新低，這會(huì)讓我仔細(xì)看看這個(gè)股票。通常如果一個(gè)股票被如此痛扁，所有毀滅他的理由都已經(jīng)在股價(jià)中了。RSI對(duì)于超買不是很好的指標(biāo)因?yàn)楣善笨梢员怀I很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間。然而股票被嚴(yán)重超賣所持續(xù)的時(shí)間不會(huì)超過幾個(gè)星期）

朱昂注：這個(gè)關(guān)于技術(shù)方面的指標(biāo)，就不太懂了。

11、If you don’t understand why you are in a trade, you won’t understand when it is the right time to sell, which means you will only sell when the price action scares you. Most of the time when price action scares you, it is a buying opportunity, not a sell indicator. （如果你不知道為什么你買了這個(gè)股票，你不會(huì)明白什么時(shí)候應(yīng)該賣出，這也因?yàn)檫@只有股票波動(dòng)讓你害怕時(shí)才會(huì)賣出。而大部分股價(jià)大幅波動(dòng)時(shí)，是買入機(jī)會(huì)，而不是賣出指標(biāo)）。

朱昂注：你必須很清楚知道為什么會(huì)買入這個(gè)股票，而不是輕易去聽信別人的話。只有對(duì)于買入股票的理由很清楚，你也會(huì)知道出現(xiàn)什么情況會(huì)賣出。如果是聽了別人，甚至自己亂買，那么一個(gè)波動(dòng)就會(huì)讓你賣出。

12、Normally, I let winners run and cut losers. In 2009, however, as a result of the posttraumatic effects of going through the September 2008 to February 2009 period—talking to clients who are going out of business and seeing 50 percent of your fund redeemed is all very wearing—I got into the habit of snatching quick 10 to 15 percent profits in individual positions. Most of these positions then went up another 35 to 40 percent. I consider my pattern of taking quick profits in 2009 a dreadful error that I think came about because I had lost a degree of confidence due to experiencing my first down year in 2008. （通常我會(huì)持有賺錢股，致?lián)p虧錢股。然而在2009年，由于大部分投資者對(duì)于08年9月至09年2月期間的創(chuàng)傷記憶猶新—許多客戶清盤，看到50%的資金被贖回。所以我開始習(xí)慣看到10-15%的利潤(rùn)就了結(jié)。而大部分這些倉位賣出后又漲了35-40%。我認(rèn)為自己2009年快速獲利了結(jié)的習(xí)慣是因?yàn)槲?008年第一次經(jīng)歷了虧錢導(dǎo)致我失去信心后而產(chǎn)生的一個(gè)可怕的錯(cuò)誤）

朱昂注：許多個(gè)人投資者最常見的錯(cuò)誤就是止盈不止損。當(dāng)一個(gè)股票越漲，他會(huì)覺得越害怕。相反，當(dāng)一個(gè)股票越跌，他會(huì)覺得越安全。這里有一個(gè)“心理成本價(jià)”的關(guān)系。我們總覺得自己的成本價(jià)都是有效的，越是高于成本價(jià)，這個(gè)股票泡沫越大，越是低于成本價(jià)，這個(gè)股票價(jià)值越大。其實(shí)很多時(shí)候恰恰相反。我們這樣做可能會(huì)放跑真正的牛股，然后拿著一把表現(xiàn)不好的股票。

13、As an equity trader, I learned the short-selling lessons relatively early. There is no high for a concept stock. It is always better to be long before they have already moved a lot than to try to figure out where to go short.（作為一個(gè)股票交易員，我很早就學(xué)會(huì)了做空的教訓(xùn)。對(duì)于主題股來說沒有股價(jià)太高一說。永遠(yuǎn)是在股票上漲前做多更好，而不是之后再想該在什么地方做空）。

朱昂注：概念股，主題投資靠的是情緒，而不是估值。情緒只要在，會(huì)越漲越高。不要輕易去做空你覺得高估的股票?；蛘哒f，不要僅僅因?yàn)楦吖蓝プ隹眨?/p>

14、Do you know what happens in a bull market? Prices open up lower and then go up for the rest of the day. In a bear market, they open up higher and go down for the rest of the day. When you get to the end of a bull market, prices start opening up higher. Prices behave that way because in the first half hour it is only the fools that are trading [pause] or people who are very smart. （你知道在牛市中會(huì)發(fā)生什么?股價(jià)低開，然而在剩下的時(shí)間內(nèi)上漲。在熊市中，股票高開低走。當(dāng)你進(jìn)入牛市末期，股價(jià)開始高開。股價(jià)會(huì)如此表現(xiàn)是因?yàn)樵陂_盤前半小時(shí)只有傻子在交易， 或者是非常聰明的人）。

朱昂注：牛市一開始的時(shí)候，開盤半小時(shí)是聰明人在交易，他們往往提前看到了牛市來臨。于是每一次低開他們都買入。市場(chǎng)總是能低開高走。但是到了后期，傻子開始成為開盤前半小時(shí)的交易主體，于是市場(chǎng)開變得高開高走，直到趨勢(shì)扭轉(zhuǎn)。熊市初期也一樣，一旦高開低走，往往是熊市特征。

15、Now that you have switched from net long to net short, what would get you long again? – Buying. If all of a sudden stocks stopped going down on bad news that would be a positive sign. （現(xiàn)在你從凈多頭轉(zhuǎn)向凈空頭，那什么能讓你重新做多？如果突然間股票沒有因?yàn)樨?fù)面消息而下跌，那是一個(gè)正面的信號(hào)）。

朱昂注：當(dāng)一個(gè)股票出現(xiàn)負(fù)面信息后股價(jià)不再下跌，那就是一個(gè)非常正面的看多信號(hào)。

16、Lots of companies screen as being “cheap.” I think that it’s easy to avoid value traps. The trick is to stay away from companies that can’t grow their cash flow and increase intrinsic value…As Buffett says, “Time is the enemy of the poor business and the friend of the great business.” （許多公司大喊太便宜了。我認(rèn)為避免價(jià)值投資陷阱很簡(jiǎn)單。核心就是避免那些現(xiàn)金流無法增長(zhǎng)以及無法增加內(nèi)在價(jià)值的公司。。。如同巴菲特說的“時(shí)間是糟糕業(yè)務(wù)的敵人，偉大業(yè)務(wù)的朋友）

朱昂注：如何避免價(jià)值投資陷阱？千萬不要去買那些表面上很便宜的公司。要去面能持續(xù)保持現(xiàn)金流和內(nèi)在價(jià)值增長(zhǎng)的公司。有些公司雖然便宜，但根本不是好生意。這種公司是時(shí)間的敵人！

17、If I wrote a book about a strategy that worked every month, or even every year, everyone would start using it, and it would stop working. Value investing doesn’t always work. The market doesn’t always agree with you. Over time, value is roughly the way the market prices stocks, but over the short term, which sometimes can be as long as two or three years, there are periods when it doesn’t work. And that is a very good thing. The fact that our value approach doesn’t work over periods of time is precisely the reason why it continues to work over the long term. （如果要我寫本書關(guān)于某種策略能夠每個(gè)月，每年都表現(xiàn)很好，當(dāng)大家都開始用的時(shí)候，就變得無效了。價(jià)值投資并不永遠(yuǎn)有效。市場(chǎng)不是永遠(yuǎn)贊同你。長(zhǎng)期看，市場(chǎng)估算股票的價(jià)格是價(jià)值的，但是短期看，有時(shí)候甚至有兩三年的時(shí)間，價(jià)值投資并不有效。而且是這非常好的事情。價(jià)值投資的短期無效才能使長(zhǎng)期的價(jià)值投資更加有效）。

朱昂注：市場(chǎng)是很聰明的，如果有一個(gè)模式時(shí)時(shí)刻刻有效戰(zhàn)勝市場(chǎng)，那么大家都會(huì)用，最終導(dǎo)致其超額收益迅速收窄，變得無效。那么價(jià)值投資為什么那么多年一直有效呢？因?yàn)閮r(jià)值投資是看長(zhǎng)期的，許多人無法站在10年，20年的維度做投資。因?yàn)閮r(jià)值投資會(huì)有幾年也跑不贏市場(chǎng)，這恰恰導(dǎo)致不是所有人會(huì)使用價(jià)值投資。價(jià)值投資的精髓是，在不適應(yīng)市場(chǎng)的階段，依然能夠堅(jiān)持。

18、The institutionalization of the market has shortened time horizons—it has reduced the window of time managers have to outperform. Most managers can’t wait for two years for an investment to work. They have to perform now. Their institutional and individual clients appear to demand it through their money flows. （市場(chǎng)的機(jī)構(gòu)化導(dǎo)致時(shí)間周期變短，縮短了基金經(jīng)理需要超越市場(chǎng)的時(shí)間。許多基金經(jīng)理無法為一個(gè)投資等待兩年。他們必須現(xiàn)在就跑贏。因?yàn)樗麄兊臋C(jī)構(gòu)和個(gè)人投資者通過資金流來要求這種表現(xiàn)）

朱昂注：如果對(duì)于基金經(jīng)理考核過于短視，那么會(huì)導(dǎo)致交易行為的短視。其實(shí)這個(gè)世界上，大部分人都愿意買入和持有，然后享受自己生活。但你的行為，是由資金性質(zhì)決定的。

19、The single best-performing mutual fund for the entire decade was up 18 percent a year, on average, during a period when the market was flat, yet the average investor in that fund lost 8 percent. That is because every time the fund did well, people piled in, and every time it underperformed, people redeemed. （這個(gè)世紀(jì)表現(xiàn)最好的共同基金年化收益率達(dá)到18%，而市場(chǎng)卻是走平的，然而這個(gè)基金的投資者平均虧損8%。因?yàn)槊慨?dāng)這個(gè)基金表現(xiàn)良好時(shí)，投資者開始邁入，而當(dāng)他跑輸市場(chǎng)時(shí)，投資者開始贖回）。

朱昂注：這是全世界基金產(chǎn)品最大的難題。許多基金的表現(xiàn)都是正收益，但是投資人卻是虧錢的。因?yàn)榛鸨憩F(xiàn)好的時(shí)候，大家買入很多?；鸨憩F(xiàn)不好的時(shí)候，大家又賣出很多。從這個(gè)角度看，一個(gè)基金產(chǎn)品的收益率雖然重要，但其波動(dòng)率可能更重要。只有低波動(dòng)率，收益率不錯(cuò)，其持有人才能長(zhǎng)期持有賺到錢。