最近幾周發(fā)布的穩(wěn)健數(shù)據(jù)提振了市場對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇的信心。三月進(jìn)口額同比增長38.1%，為四年來最高漲幅，表明國內(nèi)勢頭強(qiáng)盛，不過也反映商品價(jià)格較高。同時(shí)，零售額同比增長34.2%，超出預(yù)期，緩解了市場對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇不平衡（主要由出口和投資主導(dǎo)）的擔(dān)憂。消費(fèi)者物價(jià)指數(shù) (CPI) 保持低位，同比增長0.4%；生產(chǎn)價(jià)格指數(shù) (PPI) 突增4.4%，超出共識(shí)水平，反映出價(jià)格壓力不斷上升，且部分壓力可能轉(zhuǎn)嫁至消費(fèi)者。

第一季度GDP數(shù)據(jù)喜憂參半。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)季度環(huán)比增速0.6%。同比增速18.3%創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄，反映出去年基數(shù)非常薄弱。但是，在一定程度上，這種疲軟也反映了中國在去年早期為遏制新冠疫情而付出的努力以及今年春節(jié)期間的“就地過年”政策。整體上，制造業(yè)仍然是推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的動(dòng)力。

但是，中國政府為今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速設(shè)定了6%左右的保守目標(biāo)，且承諾保持信貸增速與名義GDP增速一致。由于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)已挽回新冠疫情相關(guān)損失，預(yù)計(jì)增速會(huì)向趨勢水平回落。服務(wù)業(yè)的基數(shù)效應(yīng)仍將在較長期限內(nèi)維持有利態(tài)勢，但是整體共識(shí)包括借貸增速降低，以及出口、知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)、固定資產(chǎn)投資（和商品生產(chǎn)）更加低迷。

地緣政治仍是人民幣的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本周，美元/離岸人民幣匯率跌破6.50，降至三月中旬的水平。但是，由于人民幣相對(duì)歐元和日元走弱，人民幣匯率指數(shù)為96.4，稍低于近期高點(diǎn)。鑒于持續(xù)（盡管收窄）的經(jīng)常賬戶盈余、有利的收益率支持和債券市場流入同時(shí)推動(dòng)人民幣走高，我們繼續(xù)將基本面看做支持離岸人民幣進(jìn)一步升值的動(dòng)力。

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