巴菲特：沒有人能一直成功投機(jī)！

You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns. But if you aren’t, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course certain to work reasonably well. Keep things simple and don’t swing for the fences. When promised quick profits, respond with a quick “no.” 

你不需要成為專家就能獲得令人滿意的投資回報(bào)。但你必須認(rèn)識(shí)到你的局限性，并遵循行之有效的方法。保持事情簡單，不要賭。當(dāng)有人拉你賺快錢的時(shí)候，立馬回絕。

Focus on the future productivity of the asset you are considering. If you don’t feel comfortable making a rough estimate of the asset’s future earnings, just forget it and move on. No one has the ability to evaluate every investment possibility. But omniscience isn’t necessary; you only need to understand the actions you undertake. 

買資產(chǎn)的話，要關(guān)注未來產(chǎn)出效益。如果你對(duì)粗略估算未來收益感到一絲不踏實(shí)，那就放棄，別干。沒人能評(píng)估每一種投資的可行性。只需要懂你在做的事情，不需要啥都懂。

If you instead focus on the prospective price change of a contemplated purchase, you are speculating. There is nothing improper about that. I know, however, that I am unable to speculate successfully, and I am skeptical of those who claim sustained success at doing so. Half of all coin-flippers will win their first toss; none of those winners has an expectation of profit if he continues to play the game.

如果你轉(zhuǎn)而關(guān)注目標(biāo)的預(yù)期價(jià)格變化，你就是在投機(jī)。這無可厚非。但我知道我沒有投機(jī)的本事，我也不相信有人能持續(xù)成功投機(jī)。有一半拋硬幣賭博的人第一輪會(huì)贏；他們一直賭下去的話，沒人能贏錢。

I thought only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations. Games are won by players who focus on the playing field – not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturdays and Sundays without looking at stock prices, give it a try on weekdays. 

我只考慮這些資產(chǎn)會(huì)產(chǎn)出什么，根本不關(guān)心它們每天的價(jià)格。賽場獲勝的一定是專注于比賽的運(yùn)動(dòng)員，而不是那些眼睛盯著記分牌的人。如果你可以享受周末不看股價(jià)的日子，試試工作日也別看。

Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time. Indeed, it is dangerous because it may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important. 

判斷宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)，或聽別人對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)看法、市場預(yù)測啥的，純屬浪費(fèi)時(shí)間。實(shí)際上這很危險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)檫@些內(nèi)容可能會(huì)模糊你的視野，進(jìn)而忽視了真正重要的事。