梅拉梅德：40 years ago, some of you weren’t get born. I had an idea, the idea was the futures markets should work not just for agriculture, but also in finance. Up to then, futures markets were agriculture, strictly agriculture. There was corn, wheat, grains, there were cattle, hogs, butter, eggs, no finance. And I thought, when I became chairman of the CME, that why should there not be financial futures? Why should be limited to agricultures. Everyone said to me that I was silly, I was too young to understand that the future can only work in agriculture. I didn’t agree, and so I had to convince a 12 member of our board, I need 7 votes, the majority, but I couldn’t get 7 votes, because they thought it was bad idea. So I went to a professor, who was a very famous economist, who’s name you may know, is Milton Friedman, he was a professor of the University of Chicago, just a couple miles away. I met with him, and I said to him, I have this idea, this idea is to launch a market in finance, beginning with the currency market. He said it is a wonderful idea, why don’t you do it. I said, would you say that again, I didn’t believe that. He says “yeah yeah”, it is a wonderful idea, do it. I said, you know no one will believe me that you said this, no one will believe me. He said, well tell them I said so. I said I need it in writing. He said, “oh you want a feasibility study? Like will Currency make a good futures market”? I said exactly, that’s what I want. He said, well I’m a capitalist. I said ok, how much? He said 7500 dollars, 7500 dollars for a feasibility study. That 7500 dollars is worth 18 billion today, because that’s what the CME is worth. So it is a good trade. If you ever want to make a good trade, that’s a good trade. Because I took that idea, and spread it not just to the CME, but to the world. We started with currency futures, and then we went to interest rate futures, and then we went to stock index futures, and it began to expand and work. And pretty soon, I convinced London, that they need a futures market in finance like ours, and later Germany, and then later Japan, and then later Singapore, Korea, and now it is China’s turn. So few years ago, about 4 years ago, I met with vice premier, Wang Qi Shan. I said to him, why don’t you have a financial futures exchange, today, futures markets are 80% finance, China is ready for a financial futures exchange. He listened to me. 2 years later, the CIFFEX opened and listed the Shanghai 300. As you all know, the Shanghai 300 is the most successful market ever started, immediate success, immediate trading. Because the idea of finance futures is so powerful. And today no financial centre in the world can exist, if it doesn’t have a futures market, both agriculture and finance, both are important. But finance is clearly in the best interest today for China. China cannot reach the level of its potential that it deserves, unless it expands its usage of futures markets into other products, so they are talking now about having crude oil contract, a very good idea. China is the big, the biggest consumer of crude oil in the world. It ought to have a market that is the benchmark that it determines and helps to determine the pricing of oil. Similarly, they taking about the bond market, either a 5 or 7 year bond market, and that is exactly right. China needs to have a futures market in bond. They talking about options on futures, and that’s right. Because what these instruments do is create liquidity and builds the capital market of China, without it, it won’t work. And one thing that you soon have to do is internationalize. Because while your market that exist is very successful, probably because the CIFCO is so successful, CIFCO and other firms. But they are not successful enough, because they do not participate with foreign competition, now the move has been made, to broad the market to foreign competition. And there are firms are chosen, to bring that broadening and form business on their market and your market here. CIFCO is double A, double A out of the firms. I said congratulations. And it will succeed. Because the idea is so powerful, without this idea you cannot hedge your risk in business. With this idea, you have a chance to risk secured. There are lots of speculations too, because market doesn’t work without speculation. You must have both commercial and speculation, but because of that, the market allows the business to hedge the risk in business, and in that way, it could use the capital in better ways to build the business further. Every market in the world has alert the absolute necessity of futures, and particularly financial futures. So I’m delighted to be here and advance this idea. I have been dealing with China for very very long time. I met with president Li Xiannian personally in Chicago 1985. For sure many of you were born. In 1985, president Li Xiannian came to my office in Chicago and I showed him how the market work. That visit began the friendship of me and China, and since that time, I been to China again again and again, and each time, I gave them advice, gave them courage, and incentive to move forward, because the Chinese people are extremely bright, you learn very fast, and that is very good. So I have great, great hopes for China, I am a very strong proponent of China and its market, and the friendship between us and the Chinese people, thank you very much

中譯：

梅拉梅德：40年前，有些人可能還沒有出生，我就有一個想法：那就是期貨不應(yīng)當(dāng)只包括農(nóng)產(chǎn)品，還應(yīng)當(dāng)包括金融產(chǎn)品。直到那時，期貨市場還只是交易農(nóng)產(chǎn)品，只有農(nóng)產(chǎn)品。有玉米，小麥，大麥，牛，豬，黃油和雞蛋，沒有金融產(chǎn)品。當(dāng)我成為CME集團(tuán)的主席，我就想為什么會沒有金融產(chǎn)品，為什么只有農(nóng)產(chǎn)品？所有人都對我說我很傻，太年輕了，還不懂期貨市場只是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品。但我不同意，所以我需要讓董事會的12名成員信服，我需要7名董事，一半以上的人認(rèn)同我，但我沒有得到7名贊同票，因為大家都覺得這個想法不好。后來我找到一位教授，也是著名的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，大家可能知道他的名字，他叫Milton Friedman, 米爾頓.佛里德曼。（1976年獲諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎）他是芝加哥大學(xué)的一位教授。與我只有幾公里遠(yuǎn)，我見到他跟他說了我的想法，跟他說我想發(fā)起金融期貨市場，從貨幣市場開始。他說這個想法非常棒，為什么你不去做？我說，你能再說一遍嗎？我無法相信。他說這個想法很好，趕快去做！我跟他說，沒有人會相信你剛才說的，沒有人會相信我的。他說，那你去告訴大家是我說的。我說，那我需要書面的形式。他問我，那你是要一份關(guān)于貨幣是否會成為一個好的期貨市場的可行性研究嗎？我說是的，正是這樣，這就是我想要的。他說，我是一個資本家。我說好，多少錢？他說，7500美元，一個可行性研究7500美元。這個7500美元今天價值180億美元，因為這是整個CME的價值。所以這是一個很好的交易。如果誰想做一個好的交易，這就是一個。正因為我不光將這個想法傳播至CME，還有整個世界，我們從貨幣期貨開始，然后我們想推出利率期貨，然后是股指期貨，然后開始擴大工作。很快，我讓倫敦相信他們也需要像我們一樣的金融期貨市場，接著是德國，然后日本，然后是新加坡，韓國，現(xiàn)在輪到中國了。幾年前，大概4年前，我見到副總理王岐山，我跟他說，為什么你們沒有一個金融期貨交易所。今天期貨市場80%是金融產(chǎn)品，中國已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好建設(shè)一個金融期貨交易所。他聽了我的建議，2年后，中金所成立，推出滬深300股指期貨。大家知道，滬深300是至今為止最成功的市場，空前成功，交易量空前。因為金融期貨這個想法非常強大，如果沒有期貨市場，今天就不會有金融中心的存在,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和金融兩者都很重要。但今天中國無疑是金融期貨的最大受益者。中國如果不利用期貨市場來參與到其他產(chǎn)品，很難充分發(fā)揮這個國家內(nèi)在的潛能。所以他們現(xiàn)在說推出石油，是個很好的想法。中國是世界最大的石油消耗者。中國應(yīng)當(dāng)有一個市場，一個基準(zhǔn)來決定和幫助決定原油的價格。同樣的，他們還說債券市場，不論5年還是7年的債券，這個也很正確。中國需要一個債券期貨市場。他們還說期貨期權(quán)，也很對。因為這些產(chǎn)品都將提高市場的流動性，建設(shè)中國資本市場，沒有這些將不能成事。還有一件應(yīng)當(dāng)做的就是走向國際化。因為盡管中國市場很成功，可能是因為有中期這么成功，中期和其他一些公司，但這不還夠，因為還沒有參與到國外的競爭?，F(xiàn)在要付諸行動了，擴大市場，加入到國際競爭中。有一些公司被選中來參與到國際市場中。中期在這些公司中是AA公司，我向你們表示恭喜。我相信這會成功，因為這個想法非常強大，沒有這個想法，大家沒辦法對沖風(fēng)險。有了這個就有了機會，因為有很多投機者，有了保險，因為沒有投機者市場無法工作，必須有商業(yè)者和投機者，也因為這樣，市場允許企業(yè)來對沖企業(yè)風(fēng)險，這樣也可以更有效的利用資本來幫助進(jìn)一步發(fā)展。全球每一個期貨市場都意識到期貨的絕對必要性，尤其是金融期貨。所以我很高興來到這里，促進(jìn)這個想法。我與中國已經(jīng)相處很久很久了，1985年我在芝加哥與前國家主席李先念見面，相信你們大家很多都已經(jīng)出生了，1985年李先念主席來到我在芝加哥的辦公室，我給他介紹市場是如何運行的。那次見面就是我與中國之間友誼的開始。從那時起，我屢次來到中國，每次來給他們建議，勇氣和鼓勵來推動他們，因為中國人非常聰明，學(xué)的非?？?，這非常好。我對中國有很高很高的期望，我是中國強有力的支持者，無論是中國的市場還是我和中國人之間的友誼。非常感謝！

主持人：我想問下夏斌所長，人民幣國際化，剛才梅拉梅德先生講，可能很快，應(yīng)該下個月就在芝加哥CME交易所就推出來以離岸人民幣的期貨，掛牌交易，它還可以做實物交割，在香港進(jìn)行交割，這個對于人民幣國際化有重大好處。而這個離岸人民幣和在岸人民幣有價差會為投資者帶來套利機會。那么這個離岸人民幣期貨推廣和您說的人民幣國際化是不是有殊途同歸的一個作用？

夏斌：我在2009年就中國人民幣國際化路線圖用通俗的話講過三句話，在我《中國金融戰(zhàn)略2020》這本書都有，一句話是要想盡辦法讓人民幣走出去，讓人民幣到境外去，走出去。第二句話，出去的人民幣想盡辦法讓他自己玩起來，各種各樣的產(chǎn)品，各種各樣的方式，我們都支持，我們不阻擋，人家怎么玩的，我們都讓他去玩，無非就多了一個貨幣。第三句話，中國的人民幣能夠走出去，海外的投資者、居民、債人和企業(yè)愿意持有人民幣，不需要是能夠享受中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的好處，言外之意，讓他有管制，目前是有管制的回流。這是人民幣國際化中間的三個點。你剛才問的問題僅僅是人民幣在外面玩起來的一種方式，而且不是在香港離岸市場，也不是在倫敦離岸市場，是在芝加哥交易所做人民幣交易、期貨交易，我認(rèn)為完全可以。不僅芝加哥可以，我認(rèn)為其他國家都可以做。當(dāng)然有個交割的問題，剛才梅拉梅德先生說的對，在香港交割，所以我認(rèn)為更沒問題。聽到這個消息以后，我所謂感嘆的是我在前面演講所講的，在中國境內(nèi)，在中國金融國門還沒有完全打開，資本限還沒有完全放開，在人民幣還沒有兌換之前，我們境內(nèi)的人民幣的各種品種要盡快的發(fā)展起來，就是，人民幣期貨，各種各樣的交易屬性，我們應(yīng)該都自己自己玩起來，開始鍛煉，積累經(jīng)驗。對我們的世界，有關(guān)部門，應(yīng)該想盡辦法加快速度，這是我希望今天能夠讓我們的媒體說出去的話。

主持人：我也想問一下梅拉梅德先生，人民幣還不能跟境外流通，離岸人民幣規(guī)模有限。 那么芝加哥交易所的人民幣期貨，會不會因為現(xiàn)貨市場不充分，致使交易價格產(chǎn)生誤導(dǎo)，與整體離岸人民幣產(chǎn)生價差，這樣對人民幣國際化會不會有正向的作用？

梅拉梅德：The question of the RMB is a very very important question. Obviously, the RMB has the potential to be the reserve currency just like the dollar is. But for that to happen, the RMB must become much more flexible, in its convertibility into other currencies, and to do that, the RMB has to widen its band until the time when it is totally convertible, hopefully in a few years. But in the mean time, the world has to get use using RMB for its trade, the more trade that is done in RMB, the more the world get use to use RMB, and that will be the benefit of China. So I am here, as CME, is to help that process. Up to now, we are having RMB trading, which is for settlement, not delivery. But the settlement is not good enough for this market. We know that in Hong Kong recently will launch deliverable RMB contract. They announce the deliverable of RMB contract. We too, at the CME, are going to do that. That will provide the world trade, with the ability to actually get deliverable RMB for its dollars or euro or yen in Hong Kong delivery. That will be a huge advancement in making RMB to be an international currency, and that’s the whole effort, we are in very much favor of this, we think it is going to happen very soon, and I think the capital market in China will be the beneficiary.

（中譯）：

梅拉梅德：關(guān)于人民幣的問題非常非常重要。顯然的，人民幣理應(yīng)成為與美元一樣的儲備貨幣。要達(dá)到這一點，人民幣兌換其他貨幣需要變得更加自由，要做到這一點，人民幣需要放寬松，直到可自由兌換，希望這一點能在未來幾年實現(xiàn)。但在此同時，世界各地需要使用人民幣作為貿(mào)易結(jié)算貨幣。只有更多的貿(mào)易采用人民幣結(jié)算，市場才會逐漸接受使用人民幣，這也會為中國帶來利益，所以我在這里，代表CME，來幫助推進(jìn)這個進(jìn)程。現(xiàn)在CME有人民幣期貨交易，但是這個期貨合約目前只能現(xiàn)金交割，而不能現(xiàn)貨交割，但這對市場來說是不夠的。最近港交所將推出在香港交割的人民幣期貨，我們CME也有此打算。這將使市場參與者能在香港收到兌美元、歐元、日元的人民幣現(xiàn)貨，為人民幣走向國際化提供巨大幫助。我們（CME）相信這個進(jìn)程會非?？?，并且樂于推動其發(fā)展，我們相信中國資本市場會從中獲益良多。

主持人：聽完梅拉梅德先生所說，夏斌所長我有一種擔(dān)心，一旦人民幣在芝加哥交易所進(jìn)行交易，在香港形成交割，形成一個離岸邊人民幣交易價格，和我們央行公布的外匯牌價，會不會形成引領(lǐng)作用，會不會沖擊我們國內(nèi)人民幣定價體系？

夏斌：期貨交易的離岸價格的降低前一陣子，現(xiàn)在同時存在ETF的市場一樣，是必然的，這是第一；第二呢，我們要搞人民幣離岸市場，我們的資本限現(xiàn)在不馬上放開，套利是必然的，我們要想盡辦法把套利降低到最低的限度，意味著，反過來要逼著我們要加快匯率的改革，加快結(jié)構(gòu)要調(diào)整。我剛才聽梅拉梅德先生說的，香港辦了人民幣期貨交易，那么芝加哥與香港比，有對哦大競爭空間。因為芝加哥不能交割，倫敦還可以做結(jié)算交割。

梅拉梅德：We always believe that competition is good, so we are not afraid of competition, because competition advances the product, it’s always a good thing. Because it keeps both parties or three parties under toast, they have to be smarter, they maybe have to be smarter the next time. But you learn from that, you compete all time and the more you compete, the better the result. So we will compete with Hong Kong. But RMB is so big, that the two markets are not enough. Probably more markets are necessary.

（中譯）：

梅拉梅德：我們（CME）相信競爭是有利的，我們不懼競爭，因為競爭會使產(chǎn)品更優(yōu)秀，是件好事。因為這使參與者變得更聰明，不停競爭并從競爭中學(xué)習(xí)，競爭越多，結(jié)果越好。因此我們會與香港競爭。但是人民幣市場非常大，2個市場是不夠的，還需要更多。

夏斌：作為一個中國學(xué)者，我不是擔(dān)心競爭，我是非常歡迎，與香港市場、芝加哥市場，甚至與更多的國家市場競爭。